It sounds weird saying this given the trend of anomalously warm outlooks, but October will start off cooler than normal for New England. This first week is a unique setup where the remnants of Ian to the south will impose a northeasterly wind across much of the region, further enhanced by an area of high pressure over Ontario/Quebec, allowing cold air advection. Having Ian nearby will also result in a wet start to the month, with welcomed rainfall to the region for areas still under moderate to severe drought. The current forecast has parts of southern New England receiving 1-2" of rain in a span of 12-hours where the monthly average for Boston is 3.52". Once Ian departs, New England's first "true" shot of Polar air is expected to follow the second week of October, dropping a large portion of the area into the 30s which I would anticipate to be the first frost of the season for some in southern New England. Beyond the second week of October, long range models are in some agreement of the Pacific North American (PNA) oscillation going positive, which favors cooler than normal temperatures for the Eastern US. Shown below is the GEFS (left) which I think is overdone, and the EPS (right) which is a little more "in the ballpark", but illustrating the same idea. Despite the wet start to the month, if the +PNA really takes over as advertised, I think New England will likely finish around average for the month in regards to precipitation, and cooler than normal for the month.
0 Comments
After what has been a quiet start to hurricane season, the tropics have quickly caught up over the past month. Seasonal accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), which is a measure of the number, strength and duration of all the tropical storms in a season is very close to average now. From a meteorological perspective, the storm that became Ian looked ominous from the start, especially when model guidance was in unusual agreement at an extended lead time. The strength of Ian was enough to cause an island-wide blackout in Cuba following a Category 3 landfall over the western part of the island on Sept. 27th. Once Ian entered the Gulf of Mexico, it strengthened into a Category 4 storm and made landfall on Sept.28th at the island of Cayo Costa, which is near Fort Myers and Cape Coral. Max sustained winds at the time of landfall were ~150 mph, which made it tied for the fifth-strongest hurricane on record to strike the U.S. Storm surge reports across southwest FL were estimated to be as high as 12 feet, leading to widespread destruction of buildings and infrastructure. As Ian tracked across the state with strong winds and continuous rain, over 2 million customers ended up losing power. Final rainfall reports ranged from 7-17”. Ian then re-emerged over water on Sept.29th, re-strengthening into a Category 1 storm before making landfall for a third time near Georgetown, SC with widespread coastal flooding and ~300,000 power outages in parts of FL, SC & NC. Ian is the third Category 4 storm to strike the U.S. since 2020. Since 2017, there have been five storms Category 4 or higher to strike the U.S. Prior to 2017, the strongest hurricane to strike the U.S. was Katrina in 2005.
|