Wednesday-Thursday Storm Forecast/Disco
Monday, February 25, 2013
As our stormy pattern continues, our next event will be here on Wednesday. What is unique about Wednesday's event is that it is considered a Miller B Event. Miller B pertains to certain characteristics of the cyclogenesis of this storm. With Miller B cyclogenesis, two surface lows are involved. There is initially one area of low pressure over land, and as it moves up the coast, a second area of low pressure develops along the coast as the low pressure over land weakens. This secondary low that forms along the coast can become very strong, and can bring along with it nice precipitation amounts and gusty winds. There is another factor involved with this however, known as cold air damming (CAD). With CAD, you generally have an area of high pressure over Quebec/Maine. This area of high pressure allows cold air to stream down and causes the associated warm front to develop a "kink" as I like to call it. For this case, the cold air actually separates the two areas of low pressure. With this "kink", there is a defined thermal gradient that usually banks up along the lee side (eastern half) of the Appalachians. This cold air that is streamed down (which is often times below freezing when in the winter season) is very hard to move, and with the warmer temps aloft associated with easterly flow from our low pressure system, any rain that falls may be sleet or freezing rain, although with this system I do not see freezing rain being a serious threat. This concept is important because is can separate the precipitation types that some may see. Below I will walk you through what I am talking about.
As our stormy pattern continues, our next event will be here on Wednesday. What is unique about Wednesday's event is that it is considered a Miller B Event. Miller B pertains to certain characteristics of the cyclogenesis of this storm. With Miller B cyclogenesis, two surface lows are involved. There is initially one area of low pressure over land, and as it moves up the coast, a second area of low pressure develops along the coast as the low pressure over land weakens. This secondary low that forms along the coast can become very strong, and can bring along with it nice precipitation amounts and gusty winds. There is another factor involved with this however, known as cold air damming (CAD). With CAD, you generally have an area of high pressure over Quebec/Maine. This area of high pressure allows cold air to stream down and causes the associated warm front to develop a "kink" as I like to call it. For this case, the cold air actually separates the two areas of low pressure. With this "kink", there is a defined thermal gradient that usually banks up along the lee side (eastern half) of the Appalachians. This cold air that is streamed down (which is often times below freezing when in the winter season) is very hard to move, and with the warmer temps aloft associated with easterly flow from our low pressure system, any rain that falls may be sleet or freezing rain, although with this system I do not see freezing rain being a serious threat. This concept is important because is can separate the precipitation types that some may see. Below I will walk you through what I am talking about.
This image above is our initial area of low pressure over land. Notice the second area of low pressure is about to develop over the coast of North Carolina.
This image above shows the second area of low pressure now developed, as the low pressure over land begins to weaken.
Lastly, this image above shows the area of low pressure fully over the coast. This isn't a perfect example because this low pressure isn't necessarily "strong", but as it moves into the Canadian Maritimes it will deepen and become more intense. This type of event (Miller B) can a lot of times bring Nor'Easter like weather to Northern New England.
This last image above shows the CAD aspect of this system. Notice the area I circled that shows the "wedge" in the associated warm front along the lee side of the Appalachians.
Now that we have that all squared away let's get to the forecast aspect of this...
As of right now, precipitation for this event should start Tuesday night in CT, RI, and Western MA, but the bulk of it will arrive for most early Wednesday morning and last through Thursday night, and even through Friday morning/afternoon for some. This means we have another long duration event on our hands. In regards to precipitation type, this is strictly a location event, so depending on where you are, things will vary, but this will be predominately a rain event for most to start off.
FORECAST
For much of Coastal MA, and Southern New England, this will be predominately a rain event. With such prevalent easterly flow, warm air will be streamed in off the ocean making low level temperatures too warm for snow, however for the interior, a mix event/sleet/snow is expected depending on where you are. As this event continues to move towards the latter end (Thursday morning-ish), I wouldn't rule out eastern areas seeing some flakes with some mix in-between, as upper air temperatures will become cool enough, but I don't expect much accumulation, if any. So for now, Coastal MA areas to Western Norfolk/Western Middlesex Counties I am going with no accumulation to 1" of snow, with the 1" being for interior areas.
Central-Western MA: 4"-8", with maybe spots of 9"-10" for the highest of elevations. For lower elevation areas in, and west of Worcester County, temperatures may be too warm for significant accumulation, so I am going with 2"-4" for you.
Central NH is progged to make out the best with this event, with 8"-12" expected (as of right now), and for folks in Southern and Northern NH is to expect anywhere between 4"-8".
Update for far S. NH (7:45 AM): 850 mb warm air advection is pretty prevalent right now, leading to more of a mix/rain for most in this area (earlier than I had expected). This will be the case here on out so I'm updating my range for a coating to 2" depending on your elevation.
RI/CT: Nothing to 1". Low level temps are too warm for snow.
VERIFICATION
Forecast busted for most of NH except for spots in Carroll County which fell in my 8"-12" range, however nowhere received a foot. Biggest issue with NH was that there was a lot of isolated, dry pockets eating away at the precipitation, in addition to downsloping, which tends to evaporate precipitation depending on your location and wind direction. In addition, there was no significant banding which kept snowfall totals way down.
For this event, the NAM verified the best having the warm air arrive a lot earlier than anticipated, which turned many over to rain hours before I, and many others expected them to, which as a result put a lid on any real chance of accumulation.
As for MA/RI/CT, I verified for most, so this forecast wasn't a complete bust (just NH).
Now that we have that all squared away let's get to the forecast aspect of this...
As of right now, precipitation for this event should start Tuesday night in CT, RI, and Western MA, but the bulk of it will arrive for most early Wednesday morning and last through Thursday night, and even through Friday morning/afternoon for some. This means we have another long duration event on our hands. In regards to precipitation type, this is strictly a location event, so depending on where you are, things will vary, but this will be predominately a rain event for most to start off.
FORECAST
For much of Coastal MA, and Southern New England, this will be predominately a rain event. With such prevalent easterly flow, warm air will be streamed in off the ocean making low level temperatures too warm for snow, however for the interior, a mix event/sleet/snow is expected depending on where you are. As this event continues to move towards the latter end (Thursday morning-ish), I wouldn't rule out eastern areas seeing some flakes with some mix in-between, as upper air temperatures will become cool enough, but I don't expect much accumulation, if any. So for now, Coastal MA areas to Western Norfolk/Western Middlesex Counties I am going with no accumulation to 1" of snow, with the 1" being for interior areas.
Central-Western MA: 4"-8", with maybe spots of 9"-10" for the highest of elevations. For lower elevation areas in, and west of Worcester County, temperatures may be too warm for significant accumulation, so I am going with 2"-4" for you.
Central NH is progged to make out the best with this event, with 8"-12" expected (as of right now), and for folks in Southern and Northern NH is to expect anywhere between 4"-8".
Update for far S. NH (7:45 AM): 850 mb warm air advection is pretty prevalent right now, leading to more of a mix/rain for most in this area (earlier than I had expected). This will be the case here on out so I'm updating my range for a coating to 2" depending on your elevation.
RI/CT: Nothing to 1". Low level temps are too warm for snow.
VERIFICATION
Forecast busted for most of NH except for spots in Carroll County which fell in my 8"-12" range, however nowhere received a foot. Biggest issue with NH was that there was a lot of isolated, dry pockets eating away at the precipitation, in addition to downsloping, which tends to evaporate precipitation depending on your location and wind direction. In addition, there was no significant banding which kept snowfall totals way down.
For this event, the NAM verified the best having the warm air arrive a lot earlier than anticipated, which turned many over to rain hours before I, and many others expected them to, which as a result put a lid on any real chance of accumulation.
As for MA/RI/CT, I verified for most, so this forecast wasn't a complete bust (just NH).
Saturday-Sunday Event Forecast FINAL CALL (Hopefully)
Friday, February 22, 2013
I bumped totals down again for most, given recent model guidance, which hasn't made this forecasting process easy whatsoever. Basically the southern stream of energy that was key to making this a good event phases too late with the upper level low, making for low QPF amounts, aside from this system already being further to our south and further offshore. A key factor with this system is there is a Norlun trough type set up, which may provide higher snowfall amounts for certain areas.
Barstable/Plymouth/S.Bristol Counties/Islands: With 850 mb temps borderline freezing, and surface temps above freezing, this will be mainly a rain event for you folks due to the location of the rain/snow line. I am not ruling out some brief mixing, but accumulation will be very minimal since snow should make its way in towards the end. Therefore, I am going with 1"-2" for most, and I expect the exterior Cape and Islands to get less than 1".
N.Bristol/Norfolk/Middlesex/Essex/Suffolk Counties/Coastal MA: Welcome to the potential screw zone. Rain/snow line is key for these areas, and depending where this sets up, the gradient for accumulation may be sharp, but I don't expect much when all is said and done due to unfavorable ratios. This area lies right along the freezing line of 850 mb temps, and surface temps remain above freezing, but due to the rate this precip will be falling, accumulation will happen despite some early mixing. I am going with 2"-5", with areas further east most likely to see 1"-3", and the more NW we move, I expect the upper end of this range to verify.
Worcester County/S. NH/C.NH: This is the area likely to make out the best. You folks are far enough inland where the rain/snow line will not affect what you receive. 4"-8".
N.NH: 3"-6".
Areas west of Worcester County: 2"-4", with higher elevations having the chance of 5".
N CT: Coating-3".
S CT: Coating-2".
RI: Coastal areas, a coating to 1". Interior, I'm going with 1"-4".
My forecast is a blend of the Euro and NAM. I am not referring to the GFS as much because it kind of got lost in the shuffle along the way, but is actually back on board, but too late for my liking. Still, I feel confident that a blend of the two I used will verify. This event should start in CT around 4 PM or so, max out Sunday afternoon for most, and taper off by overnight Sunday evening. As for winds, it will not be as windy as models initially were hinting at. I am thinking sustained 15-25 mph for Eastern areas, with gusts ranging from 30-35 mph, especially for those on the coast. This will be a wet, heavy snow for most, so power outages are a possibility given the amount that falls.
This is a fairly general forecast, so if you have any questions, let me know. I'm putting this as a medium confidence forecast just because predicting rain/snow lines are extremely difficult and where this ends up setting could alter snow totals a tad. Models are also trending to keep this further offshore which drags in colder temps aloft, but would lessen QPF amounts, resulting in lower totals. The fact that surface temperatures are so warm as well will be a huge factor in how this plays out, especially since this storm is more drawn out rather than bursts of snow like we had during the blizzard, which may make accumulation difficult. I don't expect roadways to have close to as nice accumulation as vegetation will, but if it falls fast enough, the road temperatures will cool, and accumulation will occur.
VERIFICATION
Forecast verified for most.
I bumped totals down again for most, given recent model guidance, which hasn't made this forecasting process easy whatsoever. Basically the southern stream of energy that was key to making this a good event phases too late with the upper level low, making for low QPF amounts, aside from this system already being further to our south and further offshore. A key factor with this system is there is a Norlun trough type set up, which may provide higher snowfall amounts for certain areas.
Barstable/Plymouth/S.Bristol Counties/Islands: With 850 mb temps borderline freezing, and surface temps above freezing, this will be mainly a rain event for you folks due to the location of the rain/snow line. I am not ruling out some brief mixing, but accumulation will be very minimal since snow should make its way in towards the end. Therefore, I am going with 1"-2" for most, and I expect the exterior Cape and Islands to get less than 1".
N.Bristol/Norfolk/Middlesex/Essex/Suffolk Counties/Coastal MA: Welcome to the potential screw zone. Rain/snow line is key for these areas, and depending where this sets up, the gradient for accumulation may be sharp, but I don't expect much when all is said and done due to unfavorable ratios. This area lies right along the freezing line of 850 mb temps, and surface temps remain above freezing, but due to the rate this precip will be falling, accumulation will happen despite some early mixing. I am going with 2"-5", with areas further east most likely to see 1"-3", and the more NW we move, I expect the upper end of this range to verify.
Worcester County/S. NH/C.NH: This is the area likely to make out the best. You folks are far enough inland where the rain/snow line will not affect what you receive. 4"-8".
N.NH: 3"-6".
Areas west of Worcester County: 2"-4", with higher elevations having the chance of 5".
N CT: Coating-3".
S CT: Coating-2".
RI: Coastal areas, a coating to 1". Interior, I'm going with 1"-4".
My forecast is a blend of the Euro and NAM. I am not referring to the GFS as much because it kind of got lost in the shuffle along the way, but is actually back on board, but too late for my liking. Still, I feel confident that a blend of the two I used will verify. This event should start in CT around 4 PM or so, max out Sunday afternoon for most, and taper off by overnight Sunday evening. As for winds, it will not be as windy as models initially were hinting at. I am thinking sustained 15-25 mph for Eastern areas, with gusts ranging from 30-35 mph, especially for those on the coast. This will be a wet, heavy snow for most, so power outages are a possibility given the amount that falls.
This is a fairly general forecast, so if you have any questions, let me know. I'm putting this as a medium confidence forecast just because predicting rain/snow lines are extremely difficult and where this ends up setting could alter snow totals a tad. Models are also trending to keep this further offshore which drags in colder temps aloft, but would lessen QPF amounts, resulting in lower totals. The fact that surface temperatures are so warm as well will be a huge factor in how this plays out, especially since this storm is more drawn out rather than bursts of snow like we had during the blizzard, which may make accumulation difficult. I don't expect roadways to have close to as nice accumulation as vegetation will, but if it falls fast enough, the road temperatures will cool, and accumulation will occur.
VERIFICATION
Forecast verified for most.
Saturday-Sunday Storm Threat
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
So as I said before, February is not done yet. There is big storm potential for this weekend and models are all over it, which is a good sign for things to come. I'm going to give a breakdown of what I'm looking at...
Starting with the ensemble models, both the Euro and GFS are picking this out, which implies that there is a good percentage of this happening. Below are the two ensemble images. The Euro is a tad colder, but regardless, this will be a snow event for most, except on the far exterior where this may be a mix event, but when all is said and done, this will end as snow.
So as I said before, February is not done yet. There is big storm potential for this weekend and models are all over it, which is a good sign for things to come. I'm going to give a breakdown of what I'm looking at...
Starting with the ensemble models, both the Euro and GFS are picking this out, which implies that there is a good percentage of this happening. Below are the two ensemble images. The Euro is a tad colder, but regardless, this will be a snow event for most, except on the far exterior where this may be a mix event, but when all is said and done, this will end as snow.
When talking about the individual models themselves, the Euro, GFS, GEM, and NAM (yes, the NAM), are all on track. What intrigues me is the fact that the NAM is on board with this too, and so early, where as of late the NAM doesn't usually hop on board till the very end, meaning this threat is very legitimate.
As far as QPF amounts, the Euro and GFS are both bullish (the NAM doesn't go this far out yet), so it'll be interesting to see if the models stay the course. With the Blizzard of 2013, the Euro and GFS were both bullish with that system early, and both verified, although the Euro verified much better...another thing to take note of. The Euro and GFS both show widespread 1"-2" of precipitation, which in a perfect world (assuming a 10:1 ratio), equates to 10"-20" of snowfall. That being said, not everyone will see this, as ratios become less fancy the further east you move, where ratios are less due to coastal/further east areas being warmer due to the ocean. The reason why this system is juiced is because there will already be an occluded low over the Great Lakes region and to the south there is an area of energy that gets incorporated into this system, not only amping it up more, but also providing a lot of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Once this system moves further east, it picks up even more moisture over the Atlantic which is giving us these QPF amounts. Below are the two images I am referring to.
As far as QPF amounts, the Euro and GFS are both bullish (the NAM doesn't go this far out yet), so it'll be interesting to see if the models stay the course. With the Blizzard of 2013, the Euro and GFS were both bullish with that system early, and both verified, although the Euro verified much better...another thing to take note of. The Euro and GFS both show widespread 1"-2" of precipitation, which in a perfect world (assuming a 10:1 ratio), equates to 10"-20" of snowfall. That being said, not everyone will see this, as ratios become less fancy the further east you move, where ratios are less due to coastal/further east areas being warmer due to the ocean. The reason why this system is juiced is because there will already be an occluded low over the Great Lakes region and to the south there is an area of energy that gets incorporated into this system, not only amping it up more, but also providing a lot of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Once this system moves further east, it picks up even more moisture over the Atlantic which is giving us these QPF amounts. Below are the two images I am referring to.
As for upper air temperatures, 850mb temps are below freezing on both models, meaning this precipitation will fall as snow, but it's the air temperatures between 850mb and the surface which will be key to watch in the upcoming days. My area of concern is far Eastern MA/Cape/Islands where surface temperatures may be above freezing (although not by much), which may imply some mixing given such prevalent easterly flow. It'll be interesting to see how far west this freezing line settles (also known as a coastal front), which could serve as a deal breaker for snow lovers for the areas mentioned. Take note however that a lot of areas still have snow on the ground which allows these areas to hold onto colder, low level temperatures, although ratios will be less regardless.
I am not going to post projected snowfall totals until I get a better feel for this system, but it is safe to say that if this verifies, the far Eastern areas will definitely see at least 6", meaning much more for areas west of that.
In regards to wind, I am thinking sustained 20-30 mph for this as of right now, but if this system matures earlier than models indicate, then I wouldn't rule out a Blizzard Warning for Eastern parts, including coastal Southern New England. Again, winds need to be sustained 35 mph for blizzard conditions with visibility of less than 1/4 mile for at least 3 hours. A Winter Storm Warning is almost a given for this system given it stays its course. Until then, stay tuned.
Below is a current water vapor loop snapshot of North America. Although nothing has formed yet I circled the two players involved for this weekend's storm. Storm system "1" is actually going to move over the Great Lakes and become occluded. System "2" over the Gulf of Alaska is actually going to die out, but some of its remnant energy is going to make it into the Lower Mississippi Valley, pick up its own source of moisture, and eventually get incorporated into the occluded system approximately over the Del Marva area.
I am not going to post projected snowfall totals until I get a better feel for this system, but it is safe to say that if this verifies, the far Eastern areas will definitely see at least 6", meaning much more for areas west of that.
In regards to wind, I am thinking sustained 20-30 mph for this as of right now, but if this system matures earlier than models indicate, then I wouldn't rule out a Blizzard Warning for Eastern parts, including coastal Southern New England. Again, winds need to be sustained 35 mph for blizzard conditions with visibility of less than 1/4 mile for at least 3 hours. A Winter Storm Warning is almost a given for this system given it stays its course. Until then, stay tuned.
Below is a current water vapor loop snapshot of North America. Although nothing has formed yet I circled the two players involved for this weekend's storm. Storm system "1" is actually going to move over the Great Lakes and become occluded. System "2" over the Gulf of Alaska is actually going to die out, but some of its remnant energy is going to make it into the Lower Mississippi Valley, pick up its own source of moisture, and eventually get incorporated into the occluded system approximately over the Del Marva area.
Second Half of February Outlook
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
So with at least 2' of snow for most this month, we still have another whole half to go, and for snow lovers, the pattern is looking rather favorable. With the NAO trending more negative, we can only expect the door to stay open for storms for the next couple weeks at least. Below is an image from ECMWF Ensembles representing the remainder of the month into early March projections:
So with at least 2' of snow for most this month, we still have another whole half to go, and for snow lovers, the pattern is looking rather favorable. With the NAO trending more negative, we can only expect the door to stay open for storms for the next couple weeks at least. Below is an image from ECMWF Ensembles representing the remainder of the month into early March projections:
With the a -NAO and +PNA, the table is well set. Not only will we have ridging out west, but the implied troughing to the east with a block to our north is essential for what most want: more snow. Although the pattern is favorable, this doesn't mean that things will necessarily pan out as progged. Temperatures on average, will remain favorable for snow, but a couple rain followed by snow events (I like to call them RS events for short) cannot be ruled out by any means. February is climatologically the snowiest month for most of New England so we are not out of the woods yet.
As for this weekend, there is a potential snow event on the way for this Sunday, however it is still too far out to make a forecast with high enough confidence, as location seems to be the biggest uncertainty in this so far. I'll post more on that as the event becomes more predictable.
As for this weekend, there is a potential snow event on the way for this Sunday, however it is still too far out to make a forecast with high enough confidence, as location seems to be the biggest uncertainty in this so far. I'll post more on that as the event becomes more predictable.
Sat-Sun Morning Snow Event
Friday, February 15, 2013
Interesting system will be arriving a little over a week after the Blizzard of 2013. This event obviously won't compare, although models at one point hinted at this being a 10"+ event for some last Sunday. GFS ensembles have been fairly adamant to make this a coastal disaster, but within the past day it has pushed it further offshore making this more of an event for Plymouth, Bristol, and Barnstable Counties, in addition to the Islands.
The hardest part about forecasting this event is the timing and placement of energy with this system. GFS is more in favor of making this a coastal storm whereas the Euro is a bit slower in the phasing of this system and doesn't have this system reach full maturity till it is further offshore, and well past us for that matter. Within the past few hours it can almost be determined that the Cape/Islands will see the bulk of this when taking the two into consideration. This storm is also progged to be fairly windy, with sustained winds of 30-45 mph for the exterior, and 20-30 mph for others further west. If the Euro were to verify we can probably tack off 10 mph on each end.
As far as totals, I am going with a 3"-6" anywhere west of the Cape, and this includes NE CT and NW RI, although the further west we go I expect totals to be lower. I think 6" is more on the high side but I am covering my bases because if this storm ticks just a tad further west than models are indicating I certainly wouldn't rule that out. Anywhere from Worcester county and west I'm expecting anywhere between 1"-3". For those out in W CT and W MA you may see a coating to 1" at best. For those in Bristol and Plymouth counties I am going with 5"-8". Cape and Islands folks there is potential for you to see 6"-9", and I can't rule out a spot or two of 10", especially on the far exterior Cape and the Islands. Folks in SE NH, 2"-5". Anywhere west of that in NH, including central NH, 1"-4".
The snow should be well out of here by Sunday evening, however I expect winds to stick around and remain gusty at times through Monday evening.
If anybody has questions feel free to contact me. Below is a snapshot of the GFS, which has been spitting out higher QPF than the Euro.
Interesting system will be arriving a little over a week after the Blizzard of 2013. This event obviously won't compare, although models at one point hinted at this being a 10"+ event for some last Sunday. GFS ensembles have been fairly adamant to make this a coastal disaster, but within the past day it has pushed it further offshore making this more of an event for Plymouth, Bristol, and Barnstable Counties, in addition to the Islands.
The hardest part about forecasting this event is the timing and placement of energy with this system. GFS is more in favor of making this a coastal storm whereas the Euro is a bit slower in the phasing of this system and doesn't have this system reach full maturity till it is further offshore, and well past us for that matter. Within the past few hours it can almost be determined that the Cape/Islands will see the bulk of this when taking the two into consideration. This storm is also progged to be fairly windy, with sustained winds of 30-45 mph for the exterior, and 20-30 mph for others further west. If the Euro were to verify we can probably tack off 10 mph on each end.
As far as totals, I am going with a 3"-6" anywhere west of the Cape, and this includes NE CT and NW RI, although the further west we go I expect totals to be lower. I think 6" is more on the high side but I am covering my bases because if this storm ticks just a tad further west than models are indicating I certainly wouldn't rule that out. Anywhere from Worcester county and west I'm expecting anywhere between 1"-3". For those out in W CT and W MA you may see a coating to 1" at best. For those in Bristol and Plymouth counties I am going with 5"-8". Cape and Islands folks there is potential for you to see 6"-9", and I can't rule out a spot or two of 10", especially on the far exterior Cape and the Islands. Folks in SE NH, 2"-5". Anywhere west of that in NH, including central NH, 1"-4".
The snow should be well out of here by Sunday evening, however I expect winds to stick around and remain gusty at times through Monday evening.
If anybody has questions feel free to contact me. Below is a snapshot of the GFS, which has been spitting out higher QPF than the Euro.
VERIFICATION
Totals were not as much as most meteorologists had anticipated, but my forecast verified for a decent amount of people other than Plymouth, Bristol, and Barnstable Counties, in addition to the Islands, where totals did not exceed 6". I had at least 5" for those regions (excluding the Islands), so it didn't verify as I (and most) would've liked. The potential was there, so I stand by what I forecasted, and it is always safe to forecast for more than for less. What I should've done differently was actually broaden my range for totals i.e. forecast lower totals, but keep my high totals. Trying to get within a 3" range is very hard for meteorologists to do, and I kind of put myself against the wall with that, but hey, that's what I was seeing. There were models that were hinting this could be a bust, or at least a disappointment for snow lovers, and I did take that into consideration, but when all is said and done, I should've broadened my range a tad because then I would've verified for most. My forecast was up there with other meteorologists so I don't feel too bad, but it's so hard to verify on every single detail.
Totals were not as much as most meteorologists had anticipated, but my forecast verified for a decent amount of people other than Plymouth, Bristol, and Barnstable Counties, in addition to the Islands, where totals did not exceed 6". I had at least 5" for those regions (excluding the Islands), so it didn't verify as I (and most) would've liked. The potential was there, so I stand by what I forecasted, and it is always safe to forecast for more than for less. What I should've done differently was actually broaden my range for totals i.e. forecast lower totals, but keep my high totals. Trying to get within a 3" range is very hard for meteorologists to do, and I kind of put myself against the wall with that, but hey, that's what I was seeing. There were models that were hinting this could be a bust, or at least a disappointment for snow lovers, and I did take that into consideration, but when all is said and done, I should've broadened my range a tad because then I would've verified for most. My forecast was up there with other meteorologists so I don't feel too bad, but it's so hard to verify on every single detail.
2013 Blizzard Ranks Top 5 For Boston
Saturday, February 9, 2013
So the Euro verified, and I should've stuck with it from the get-go, especially since it picked this system out two days before the other models. It was also very consistent with its 24-hour QPF forecast of widespread 2"-3". I just found it very hard to buy into such widespread, large amounts, especially since these systems don't come by too often it was hard to convince myself that the upper end of these projected totals could verify. Since it did, it is a lesson learned, and will only help enhance my forecasting skills. Euro has a tendency to verify well on large systems (as of late at least). NAM did surprisingly better than the GFS as well. Below are the totals for Boston's biggest snow storms:
1. February 17-18, 2003: 27.5"
2. February 6-7, 1978: 27.1"
3. February 27-27, 1969: 26.3"
4. March 21- April 1, 1997: 25.4"
5. February 8-9, 2013: 24.9"
6. January 22-23, 2005: 22.5"
Below is a time lapse video my friend made of the blizzard.
So the Euro verified, and I should've stuck with it from the get-go, especially since it picked this system out two days before the other models. It was also very consistent with its 24-hour QPF forecast of widespread 2"-3". I just found it very hard to buy into such widespread, large amounts, especially since these systems don't come by too often it was hard to convince myself that the upper end of these projected totals could verify. Since it did, it is a lesson learned, and will only help enhance my forecasting skills. Euro has a tendency to verify well on large systems (as of late at least). NAM did surprisingly better than the GFS as well. Below are the totals for Boston's biggest snow storms:
1. February 17-18, 2003: 27.5"
2. February 6-7, 1978: 27.1"
3. February 27-27, 1969: 26.3"
4. March 21- April 1, 1997: 25.4"
5. February 8-9, 2013: 24.9"
6. January 22-23, 2005: 22.5"
Below is a time lapse video my friend made of the blizzard.
February 8th-9th Blizzard Forecast
Thursday, February 7, 2013
So as if nobody has heard yet, we have a pretty big storm on its way. Ironically, it comes a day after the 35th anniversary of the Blizzard of '78, a storm that brought over 2' of snow and hurricane force winds to some areas. The NWS has issued a blizzard watch for much of Eastern MA, RI, and CT and a winter storm watch for pretty much everywhere else. For those of you who don't know what a blizzard technically is, it is where winds are sustained, or gust frequently to 35 mph or more for a duration of at least 3-hours, and of course, lots of snow, which lowers visibility tremendously (< 1/4 mile).
So what am I thinking? It won't be the Blizzard of '78, but it'll definitely be a storm we won't forget. It'll have a widespread impact with great snow totals. It's hard to determine which model I want to rely on because each one is saying something different. The model that has my attention is the Euro because it picked this storm out two days before other models identified it, which makes it hard not to rely on the most. Only problem with the Euro right now is that it appears rather bullish in my opinion, which it has a tendency to do anyways. The other model I am relying on is the GFS, which is usually the other "go-to" model for most. There are other models in the mix but I feel that I can generate a good enough forecast relying mainly on these two models. As a result, my forecast is going to be a blend of the two in addition to the SREFs.
I am expecting some people to start seeing flakes early to late tomorrow morning, but this thing won't kick off till mid afternoon. I expect it to be cranking Friday night before things start tapering off. The snow should be over for most by Saturday evening. Many meteorologists see this being a 2' event for some, however I personally feel that is a bit much due to snowfall ratios I've taken into consideration and I still feel precipitation amounts the models are depicting are a tad high. We also haven't had a storm like this in a while so I feel like some meteorologists are gung-ho on forecasting amounts and may be overdoing it.
Below is my snowfall graphic I put together. If anyone has any questions regarding more specifics, feel free to contact me.
I do want to mention that I believe Grafton County, NH could very well fall into the 10"-15" range with isolated 16"-19", which is not depicted in my forecast graph below. Reason I believe that is because Grafton County is located in the White Mountain Region and snowfall ratios are excellent there. Grafton County also falls right on the line between my 8"-12" and 10"-15" in a couple of the models so that is another reason why I can see totals go either way. I personally feel that Grafton County could end up seeing more towards the 15" side of things, with the potential for a few inches more.
So as if nobody has heard yet, we have a pretty big storm on its way. Ironically, it comes a day after the 35th anniversary of the Blizzard of '78, a storm that brought over 2' of snow and hurricane force winds to some areas. The NWS has issued a blizzard watch for much of Eastern MA, RI, and CT and a winter storm watch for pretty much everywhere else. For those of you who don't know what a blizzard technically is, it is where winds are sustained, or gust frequently to 35 mph or more for a duration of at least 3-hours, and of course, lots of snow, which lowers visibility tremendously (< 1/4 mile).
So what am I thinking? It won't be the Blizzard of '78, but it'll definitely be a storm we won't forget. It'll have a widespread impact with great snow totals. It's hard to determine which model I want to rely on because each one is saying something different. The model that has my attention is the Euro because it picked this storm out two days before other models identified it, which makes it hard not to rely on the most. Only problem with the Euro right now is that it appears rather bullish in my opinion, which it has a tendency to do anyways. The other model I am relying on is the GFS, which is usually the other "go-to" model for most. There are other models in the mix but I feel that I can generate a good enough forecast relying mainly on these two models. As a result, my forecast is going to be a blend of the two in addition to the SREFs.
I am expecting some people to start seeing flakes early to late tomorrow morning, but this thing won't kick off till mid afternoon. I expect it to be cranking Friday night before things start tapering off. The snow should be over for most by Saturday evening. Many meteorologists see this being a 2' event for some, however I personally feel that is a bit much due to snowfall ratios I've taken into consideration and I still feel precipitation amounts the models are depicting are a tad high. We also haven't had a storm like this in a while so I feel like some meteorologists are gung-ho on forecasting amounts and may be overdoing it.
Below is my snowfall graphic I put together. If anyone has any questions regarding more specifics, feel free to contact me.
I do want to mention that I believe Grafton County, NH could very well fall into the 10"-15" range with isolated 16"-19", which is not depicted in my forecast graph below. Reason I believe that is because Grafton County is located in the White Mountain Region and snowfall ratios are excellent there. Grafton County also falls right on the line between my 8"-12" and 10"-15" in a couple of the models so that is another reason why I can see totals go either way. I personally feel that Grafton County could end up seeing more towards the 15" side of things, with the potential for a few inches more.
Updated: February 7, 2013 @ 5:40 EST